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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 4 at the 35

Buffalo Bills 16 – Cleveland Browns 19

What Actually Happened

(:22) (Field Goal formation) 4-S.Hauschka 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.59 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +1.66 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 35, worth -0.26 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.89 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 45, worth -0.40 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model