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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 1

Cleveland Browns 6 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(3:18) 24-N.Chubb right tackle to BUF 3 for -2 yards (94-C.Liuget; 58-M.Milano).

The Three Options

GO +3.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.21 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 1, worth +0.60 EP
KICK +2.23 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 18-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.50 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model