Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 9 at the 78

Chicago Bears 0 – Detroit Lions 3

(14:48) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 39 yards to DET 39, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

The Three Options

GO -1.94 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.85 EP
63% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 78, worth -4.16 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model