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Detroit Lions

HC Matt Patricia
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CHI Home

Chicago Bears

HC Matt Nagy
Sunday 2019-11-10 · 13:00 Soldier Field, Chicago US 🌧 Rain Spread 6.0 O/U 38.0

Win Probability

DET
46.6%
CHI
53.4%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DET offense: +0.074 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • CHI offense: -0.100 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • DET defense: +0.120 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • CHI defense: -0.063 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • QB edge to CHI: Mitch Trubisky (CHI) -0.002 vs Jeff Driskel (DET) -0.108 EPA/dropback (DET starting Jeff Driskel in place of Matthew Stafford)

Predicted Final Score

DET 21
–
CHI 22
Projected margin: CHI by 1 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

DET

Da'Shawn Hand DE Out Ankle
Miles Killebrew S Out Concussion
Tracy Walker S Out Knee
Romeo Okwara DE Questionable Groin
Graham Glasgow G Questionable Back
A'Shawn Robinson DT Questionable Ankle
Joe Dahl G Questionable Ankle
Mike Daniels DT Questionable Foot
Damon Harrison DT Questionable Groin
Sam Martin P Questionable Abdomen
Matthew Stafford QB Questionable Hip

CHI

Isaiah Irving LB Out Quadricep
Eddie Goldman DT Questionable Thigh

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DET 13
–
CHI 20

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:45 FG DET (8:45) (Field Goal formation) 5-M.Prater 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. DET 3 – CHI 0
  • Q2 04:46 FG DET (4:46) 5-M.Prater 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. DET 6 – CHI 0
  • Q2 00:32 TD CHI (:32) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep right to 82-B.Braunecker for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 6 – CHI 6
  • Q3 12:30 TD CHI (12:30) 10-M.Trubisky pass short left to 29-T.Cohen for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 6 – CHI 13
  • Q3 09:44 TD CHI (9:44) (Shotgun) 10-M.Trubisky pass deep right to 18-T.Gabriel for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 6 – CHI 19
  • Q4 06:03 TD DET (6:03) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 2-J.Driskel pass deep right to 19-K.Golladay for 47 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DET 12 – CHI 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (8:45) (Field Goal formation) 5-M.Prater 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q1 CHI 4th & 3 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (6:44) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 44 yards to DET 26, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 7 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 48%

    (3:11) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 30 yards to CHI 10, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 9 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (14:48) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 39 yards to DET 39, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 1 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.63 EP
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 19%

    (13:14) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 48 yards to CHI 4, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-30-D.Virgin.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 6 at the 92
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (11:28) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 50 yards to DET 42, Center-48-P.Scales. 39-J.Agnew to CHI 44 for 14 yards (36-D.Houston-Carson; 82-B.Braunecker).

  • Q2 DET 4th & 18 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 19%

    (9:13) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 42 yards to CHI 10, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 29-T.Cohen to CHI 11 for 1 yard (30-D.Virgin).

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 13 at the 92
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (7:42) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 41 yards to CHI 49, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 12 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 59%

    (4:46) 5-M.Prater 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q2 CHI 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72%

    (3:21) 73-C.Lucas reported in as eligible. 32-D.Montgomery right guard to CHI 31 for 2 yards (98-D.Harrison).

  • Q3 DET 4th & 13 at the 42
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 42%

    (3:32) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 30 yards to CHI 12, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

  • Q3 CHI 4th & 2 at the 80
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP
    p(convert) 62%

    (2:03) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 55 yards to DET 25, Center-48-P.Scales. 39-J.Agnew to DET 32 for 7 yards (27-S.McManis; 36-D.Houston-Carson).

  • Q3 DET 4th & 3 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (:05) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 35 yards to CHI 26, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-32-T.Wilson.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 20 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 19%

    (10:49) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 40 yards to DET 12, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 11 at the 89
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (9:49) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 58 yards to CHI 31, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 29-T.Cohen pushed ob at CHI 49 for 18 yards (82-L.Thomas). PENALTY on CHI-35-R.Nall, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at CHI 39.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 3 at the 64
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (7:23) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 45 yards to DET 19, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 19 at the 79 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (3:40) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 37 yards to DET 42, Center-48-P.Scales. 39-J.Agnew to DET 48 for 6 yards (44-N.Kwiatkoski).

  • Q4 DET 4th & 11 at the 46 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 32%

    (2:18) (Shotgun) 2-J.Driskel pass incomplete deep middle to 19-K.Golladay.

  • Q4 CHI 4th & 2 at the 46 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 32%

    (1:48) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 36 yards to DET 10, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 7 at the 25 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.85 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 83%

    (:07) (Shotgun) 2-J.Driskel pass incomplete deep left to 80-D.Amendola (20-P.Amukamara). Penalty on DET-2-J.Driskel, Illegal Forward Pass, declined.