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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 1 at the 52

Detroit Lions 3 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(13:14) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 48 yards to CHI 4, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-30-D.Virgin.

The Three Options

GO +0.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.29 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 52, worth -3.09 EP
KICK -2.16 EP
  • 19% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.47 EP
  • 81% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -3.04 EP
PUNT -0.93 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 15, worth -0.93 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.63 EP