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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 12 at the 36

Detroit Lions 3 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(4:46) 5-M.Prater 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO -0.21 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.09 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 36, worth -1.94 EP
KICK -0.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.70 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 46, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model