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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 71

Chicago Bears 0 – Detroit Lions 6

What Actually Happened

(3:21) 73-C.Lucas reported in as eligible. 32-D.Montgomery right guard to CHI 31 for 2 yards (98-D.Harrison).

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.60 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 71, worth -3.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 29, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model