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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 13 at the 42

Detroit Lions 6 – Chicago Bears 20

What Actually Happened

(3:32) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 30 yards to CHI 12, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.07 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 42, worth -2.29 EP
KICK -0.88 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 12, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model