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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 80

Chicago Bears 20 – Detroit Lions 6

What Actually Happened

(2:03) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 55 yards to DET 25, Center-48-P.Scales. 39-J.Agnew to DET 32 for 7 yards (27-S.McManis; 36-D.Houston-Carson).

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.99 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 80, worth -4.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -1.88 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 37, worth -1.88 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.80 EP