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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 3 at the 64

Chicago Bears 20 – Detroit Lions 6

What Actually Happened

(7:23) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 45 yards to DET 19, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.86 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 64, worth -3.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 22, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP