Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 19 at the 79

Chicago Bears 20 – Detroit Lions 13

(3:40) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 37 yards to DET 42, Center-48-P.Scales. 39-J.Agnew to DET 48 for 6 yards (44-N.Kwiatkoski).

The Three Options

GO -2.67 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.44 EP
74% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 79, worth -4.13 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model