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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 7 at the 40

Detroit Lions 3 – Chicago Bears 0

What Actually Happened

(3:11) (Punt formation) 6-S.Martin punts 30 yards to CHI 10, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 29-T.Cohen.

The Three Options

GO -0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.42 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 40, worth -2.53 EP
KICK -0.96 EP
  • 48% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.40 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -3.12 EP
PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP