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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 23

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Tennessee Titans 13

What Actually Happened

(1:17) (Field Goal formation) 7-H.Butker 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.36 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 23, worth -0.77 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
What Happened
  • 86% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.05 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 33, worth -1.40 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model