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Kansas City Chiefs

HC Andy Reid
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Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Vrabel
Sunday 2019-11-10 · 13:00 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US ☀️ Clear Spread -5.0 O/U 49.0

Win Probability

KC
62.9%
TEN
37.1%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to KC: Ryan Tannehill (TEN) -0.136 vs Patrick Mahomes (KC) +0.291 EPA/dropback (KC starting Patrick Mahomes in place of Matt Moore)
  • KC offense: +0.116 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • TEN offense: -0.104 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • TEN defense: -0.044 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (10th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

KC 24
–
TEN 20
Projected margin: KC by 4 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

KC

Alex Okafor DE Out Ankle
Eric Fisher T Out Groin
Frank Clark DE Questionable Neck
Laurent Duvernay-Tardif G Questionable Ankle
Kendall Fuller CB Questionable Thumb

TEN

Jayon Brown LB Out Groin
Jurrell Casey DT Out Shoulder
Delanie Walker TE Out Ankle
Corey Davis WR Doubtful Hip

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 32
–
TEN 35

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 23 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:23 TD KC (9:23) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 87-T.Kelce for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 6 – TEN 0
  • Q1 04:47 FG KC (4:47) (Field Goal formation) 7-H.Butker 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 10 – TEN 0
  • Q2 10:28 TD TEN (10:28) 17-R.Tannehill pass short right to 86-A.Firkser for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on KC-21-B.Breeland, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. KC 10 – TEN 6
  • Q2 06:28 TD TEN (6:28) (Shotgun) 26-Dam.Williams up the middle to TEN 45 for -1 yards (51-D.Long). FUMBLES (51-D.Long), RECOVERED by TEN-54-R.Evans at TEN 47. 54-R.Evans for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 10 – TEN 13
  • Q2 01:17 FG KC (1:17) (Field Goal formation) 7-H.Butker 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 13 – TEN 13
  • Q3 06:59 TD KC (6:59) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 10-T.Hill for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 19 – TEN 13
  • Q3 06:10 TD TEN (6:10) 22-D.Henry up the middle for 68 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 19 – TEN 19
  • Q3 02:03 FG KC (2:03) (Field Goal formation) 7-H.Butker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 22 – TEN 20
  • Q4 12:05 TD KC (12:05) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short middle to 17-M.Hardman for 63 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-C.Wake]. KC 28 – TEN 20
  • Q4 06:30 TD TEN (6:30) (No Huddle) 22-D.Henry left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. KC 29 – TEN 26
  • Q4 03:19 FG KC (3:19) (Field Goal formation) 7-H.Butker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 32 – TEN 27
  • Q4 00:29 TD TEN (:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep middle to 10-A.Humphries for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 32 – TEN 33

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 KC 4th & 2 at the 12
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 96%

    (4:47) (Field Goal formation) 7-H.Butker 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q1 TEN 4th & 14 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 27%

    (:56) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 41 yards to KC 8, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 17-M.Hardman.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 10 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 20%

    (12:05) (Punt formation) 2-D.Colquitt punts 26 yards to TEN 27, Center-41-J.Winchester, downed by KC-27-R.Fenton.

  • Q2 KC 4th & 3 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 86%

    (1:17) (Field Goal formation) 7-H.Butker 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q2 TEN 4th & 4 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47%

    (:24) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 56 yards to KC 4, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 17-M.Hardman.

  • Q3 TEN 4th & 6 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43%

    (12:45) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 65 yards to KC 18, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 17-M.Hardman to KC 23 for 5 yards (30-C.Milton).

  • Q3 KC 4th & 2 at the 43
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60% p(FG) 42%

    (3:25) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 26-Dam.Williams to TEN 33 for 10 yards (25-A.Jackson; 31-K.Byard).

  • Q3 KC 4th & 2 at the 25
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 84%

    (2:03) (Field Goal formation) 7-H.Butker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 13 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (14:09) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 42 yards to KC 21, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

  • Q4 KC 4th & 8 at the 21 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 89%

    (3:19) (Field Goal formation) 7-H.Butker 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

  • Q4 TEN 4th & 17 at the 68 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.73 EP
    p(convert) 26%

    (1:55) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete deep right to 11-A.Brown (21-B.Breeland) [56-B.Niemann].

  • Q4 KC 4th & 7 at the 29 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.22 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 77%

    (1:27) (Field Goal formation) 2-D.Colquitt Aborted. 41-J.Winchester FUMBLES at TEN 37, recovered by KC-2-D.Colquitt at TEN 37. 2-D.Colquitt pass incomplete short left. PENALTY on KC-2-D.Colquitt, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 29.