Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 83

Tennessee Titans 13 – Kansas City Chiefs 13

(12:45) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 65 yards to KC 18, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 17-M.Hardman to KC 23 for 5 yards (30-C.Milton).

The Three Options

GO -2.24 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +1.16 EP
57% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 83, worth -4.82 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model