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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 43

Kansas City Chiefs 19 – Tennessee Titans 20

What Actually Happened

(3:25) 15-P.Mahomes pass short left to 26-Dam.Williams to TEN 33 for 10 yards (25-A.Jackson; 31-K.Byard).

The Three Options

GO +0.89 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.06 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 43, worth -2.29 EP
KICK -0.89 EP
  • 42% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 58% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.40 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model