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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 25

Kansas City Chiefs 19 – Tennessee Titans 20

What Actually Happened

(2:03) (Field Goal formation) 7-H.Butker 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.34 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25, worth -1.16 EP
KICK +1.20 EP
What Happened
  • 84% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 35, worth -1.97 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP