Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 13 at the 63

Tennessee Titans 20 – Kansas City Chiefs 22

(14:09) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 42 yards to KC 21, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.72 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.73 EP
71% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 63, worth -3.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model