Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 17 at the 68

Tennessee Titans 27 – Kansas City Chiefs 32

(1:55) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete deep right to 11-A.Brown (21-B.Breeland) [56-B.Niemann].

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP

What Happened

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +1.74 EP
74% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 68, worth -2.82 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.73 EP