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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 29

Kansas City Chiefs 32 – Tennessee Titans 27

What Actually Happened

(1:27) (Field Goal formation) 2-D.Colquitt Aborted. 41-J.Winchester FUMBLES at TEN 37, recovered by KC-2-D.Colquitt at TEN 37. 2-D.Colquitt pass incomplete short left. PENALTY on KC-2-D.Colquitt, Intentional Grounding, 10 yards, enforced at TEN 29.

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
What Happened
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +1.61 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 29, worth -1.24 EP
KICK +1.03 EP
Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 39, worth -1.58 EP
PUNT -0.60 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.22 EP