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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 50

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(14:34) 34-D.Watt up the middle to LV 49 for 1 yard (92-P.Hall).

The Three Options

GO +1.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.60 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 50, worth -2.78 EP
KICK -1.58 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model