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Los Angeles Chargers

4-6 HC Anthony Lynn
@
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Oakland Raiders

5-4 HC Jon Gruden
Thursday 2019-11-07 · 20:20 ET Ring Central Coliseum, Oakland US ☀️ Clear Spread -1.0 O/U 49.0

Win Probability

LAC
44.8%
OAK
55.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • LV defense: +0.181 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • LV offense: +0.112 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
  • LAC offense: +0.009 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
  • QB edge to LV: Derek Carr (LV) +0.151 vs Philip Rivers (LAC) +0.118 EPA/dropback

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

LAC 23 16–30
–
OAK 24 17–31
Projected margin: OAK by 1 Projected total: 47

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 10

LAC

Cortez Broughton DT Out Illness
Justin Jones DT Out Shoulder
Geremy Davis WR Doubtful Hamstring
Justin Jackson RB Doubtful Calf
Roderic Teamer CB Doubtful Groin
Denzel Perryman LB Questionable Knee
Sam Tevi T Questionable Knee
Brandon Mebane DT Questionable Knee

OAK

Arden Key DE Out Foot
Josh Mauro DE Out Groin
Trenton Brown T Questionable Knee
Dwayne Harris WR Questionable Foot
Rodney Hudson C Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

LAC 24
–
OAK 26

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 3 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:05 FG LV (8:05) 8-D.Carlson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. LAC 0 – OAK 3
  • Q1 06:14 TD LV (6:14) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle intended for 86-H.Henry INTERCEPTED by 25-E.Harris [98-M.Crosby] at LV 44. 25-E.Harris for 56 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 0 – OAK 9
  • Q2 08:27 TD LAC (8:27) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 86-H.Henry for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 6 – OAK 10
  • Q2 04:20 TD LAC (4:20) 25-M.Gordon up the middle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 13 – OAK 10
  • Q2 00:24 TD LV (:24) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 45-A.Ingold for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LAC-71-D.Square, Defensive Offside, declined. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. LAC 14 – OAK 16
  • Q3 11:36 FG LV (11:36) 8-D.Carlson 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. LAC 14 – OAK 20
  • Q3 00:28 FG LAC (:28) 4-M.Badgley 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long. LAC 17 – OAK 20
  • Q4 04:08 TD LAC (4:08) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 30-A.Ekeler for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on LV-50-N.Morrow, Defensive Holding, declined. LAC 23 – OAK 20
  • Q4 01:06 TD LV (1:06) 28-J.Jacobs up the middle for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 24 – OAK 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LV 4th & 13 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 88%

    (8:05) 8-D.Carlson 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 LAC 4th & 11 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (3:01) 1-T.Long punts 54 yards to LV 10, Center-45-C.Mazza. 11-T.Davis to LV 20 for 10 yards (48-N.Dzubnar).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 LV 4th & 13 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (1:48) 6-A.Cole punts 50 yards to LAC 33, Center-47-T.Sieg. 20-D.King to LAC 47 for 14 yards (58-K.Wilber). Penalty on LAC-89-J.Moore, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined. PENALTY on LAC-23-R.Jenkins, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 33.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LAC 4th & 1 at the 50
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72% p(FG) 25%

    (14:34) 34-D.Watt up the middle to LV 49 for 1 yard (92-P.Hall).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LV 4th & 2 at the 81
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EP
    p(convert) 64%

    (6:30) 6-A.Cole punts 41 yards to LAC 40, Center-47-T.Sieg. 20-D.King ran ob at LV 49 for 11 yards (45-A.Ingold). Penalty on LAC-57-J.Brown, Offensive Holding, offsetting. Penalty on LV-45-A.Ingold, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 LV 4th & 1 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 50%

    (2:00) 45-A.Ingold up the middle to LAC 37 for 3 yards (49-D.Tranquill).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 LV 4th & 2 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.57 EP
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 98%

    (11:36) 8-D.Carlson 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 LAC 4th & 12 at the 93
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (10:07) 1-T.Long punts 36 yards to LAC 43, Center-45-C.Mazza, downed by LAC-48-N.Dzubnar.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 LV 4th & 1 at the 34
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.55 EP
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 66%

    (8:01) 8-D.Carlson 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 LV 4th & 10 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 32%

    (4:02) 6-A.Cole punts 30 yards to LAC 17, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 20-D.King.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 LAC 4th & 5 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 97%

    (:28) 4-M.Badgley 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-C.Mazza, Holder-1-T.Long.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LV 4th & 17 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (12:19) 6-A.Cole punts 49 yards to LAC 12, Center-47-T.Sieg. 20-D.King to LAC 20 for 8 yards (50-N.Morrow).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 LAC 4th & 10 at the 70 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.76 EP
    p(convert) 37%

    (:27) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep right intended for 13-K.Allen INTERCEPTED by 42-K.Joseph at LV 35. 42-K.Joseph to LV 35 for no gain (13-K.Allen).

    See the full breakdown →