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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 81

Las Vegas Raiders 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(6:30) 6-A.Cole punts 41 yards to LAC 40, Center-47-T.Sieg. 20-D.King ran ob at LV 49 for 11 yards (45-A.Ingold). Penalty on LAC-57-J.Brown, Offensive Holding, offsetting. Penalty on LV-45-A.Ingold, Unnecessary Roughness, offsetting.

The Three Options

GO -1.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.86 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 81, worth -4.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.90 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 38, worth -1.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.83 EP