4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 4

Las Vegas Raiders 17 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(11:36) 8-D.Carlson 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +3.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +6.33 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 4, worth +0.36 EP
KICK +2.06 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.11 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.57 EP