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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 12 at the 93

Los Angeles Chargers 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 20

What Actually Happened

(10:07) 1-T.Long punts 36 yards to LAC 43, Center-45-C.Mazza, downed by LAC-48-N.Dzubnar.

The Three Options

GO -3.33 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.56 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 93, worth -5.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (110 yards).

PUNT -2.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 51, worth -2.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model