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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 34

Las Vegas Raiders 20 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(8:01) 8-D.Carlson 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole.

The Three Options

GO +2.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.86 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.46 EP
KICK +0.68 EP
What Happened
  • 66% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.21 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.55 EP