Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 17 at the 61

Las Vegas Raiders 20 – Los Angeles Chargers 17

(12:19) 6-A.Cole punts 49 yards to LAC 12, Center-47-T.Sieg. 20-D.King to LAC 20 for 8 yards (50-N.Morrow).

The Three Options

GO -1.57 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.95 EP
72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 61, worth -3.30 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model