Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 11 at the 68

Miami Dolphins 10 – Indianapolis Colts 0

(:26) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 55 yards to IND 13, Center-46-T.Pepper. 80-C.Rogers to IND 23 for 10 yards (33-J.Wiltz).

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +0.99 EP
70% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 68, worth -2.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model