MIA @ IND — 4th & Data

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Indianapolis Colts

5-4 HC Frank Reich

Sunday 2019-11-10 · 16:05 ET Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis US 🏟 Dome Spread 11.0 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

MIA

26.0%

IND

74.0%

🏟 Dome

Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

MIA offense: -0.218 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
IND offense: +0.076 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
Indoors — weather neutralised
Brian Hoyer (IND): -0.008 EPA/dropback in prior starts (IND starting Brian Hoyer in place of Jacoby Brissett)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

MIA 19 12–26

–

IND 28 21–35

Projected margin: IND by 9 Projected total: 47

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 10

MIA

Ken Webster CB Out Ankle

Reshad Jones S Out Chest

Evan Boehm C Questionable Hip

Davon Godchaux DT Questionable Shoulder

Daniel Kilgore C Questionable Knee

Avery Moss DE Questionable Ankle

IND

Parris Campbell WR Out Hand

T.Y. Hilton WR Out Calf

Pierre Desir CB Questionable Hamstring

Quincy Wilson CB Questionable Shoulder

Jacoby Brissett QB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIA 16

–

IND 12

Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 19 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 06:49 FG MIA (6:49) 7-J.Sanders 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack. MIA 3 – IND 0
Q2 02:00 TD MIA (2:00) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick scrambles right end for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 9 – IND 0
Q3 07:54 FG IND (7:54) 4-A.Vinatieri 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. MIA 10 – IND 3
Q3 00:43 FG IND (:43) 4-A.Vinatieri 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez. MIA 10 – IND 6
Q4 11:34 TD IND (11:34) (No Huddle) 2-B.Hoyer pass short left to 84-J.Doyle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIA 10 – IND 12
Q4 05:50 FG MIA (5:50) 7-J.Sanders 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack. MIA 13 – IND 12
Q4 03:36 FG MIA (3:36) 7-J.Sanders 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack. MIA 16 – IND 12

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 MIA 4th & 6 at the 29

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 34% p(FG) 81%

(6:49) 7-J.Sanders 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.
See the full breakdown →
Q1 IND 4th & 6 at the 71

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 46%

(5:18) (Punt formation) 8-R.Sanchez punts 35 yards to MIA 36, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-44-Z.Franklin.
See the full breakdown →
Q1 MIA 4th & 3 at the 35

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 47% p(FG) 69%

(2:59) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right to 19-J.Grant pushed ob at IND 23 for 12 yards (39-M.Tell III).
See the full breakdown →
Q2 MIA 4th & 3 at the 3

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

(14:54) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 37-M.Gaskin to IND 3 for no gain (29-M.Hooker, 30-G.Odum).
See the full breakdown →
Q2 MIA 4th & 12 at the 86

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31%

(7:04) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 39 yards to IND 47, Center-46-T.Pepper, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 IND 4th & 2 at the 45

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 61% p(FG) 44%

(5:32) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer scrambles right end to MIA 44 for 1 yard (47-V.Biegel).
See the full breakdown →
Q2 MIA 4th & 7 at the 38

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.57 EP

p(convert) 33% p(FG) 62%

(3:45) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 38 yards to end zone, Center-46-T.Pepper, Touchback.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 IND 4th & 10 at the 75

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38%

(1:36) (Punt formation) 8-R.Sanchez punts 48 yards to MIA 27, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 48-M.Sherels to MIA 33 for 6 yards (16-A.Dulin, 26-C.Geathers).
See the full breakdown →
Q2 MIA 4th & 11 at the 68

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30%

(:26) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 55 yards to IND 13, Center-46-T.Pepper. 80-C.Rogers to IND 23 for 10 yards (33-J.Wiltz).
See the full breakdown →
Q3 IND 4th & 8 at the 73

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 42%

(14:12) (Punt formation) 8-R.Sanchez punts 54 yards to MIA 19, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 48-M.Sherels to MIA 29 for 10 yards (26-C.Geathers). PENALTY on IND-16-A.Dulin, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at MIA 29.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 IND 4th & 7 at the 7

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 36% p(FG) 98%

(7:54) 4-A.Vinatieri 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 MIA 4th & 6 at the 71

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40%

(5:54) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 41 yards to IND 30, Center-46-T.Pepper. 80-C.Rogers to MIA 49 for 21 yards (42-P.Laird).
See the full breakdown →
Q3 IND 4th & 17 at the 21

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 25% p(FG) 90%

(:43) 4-A.Vinatieri 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 MIA 4th & 14 at the 30

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 23% p(FG) 79%

(5:50) 7-J.Sanders 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 MIA 4th & 5 at the 30 late-game

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38% p(FG) 79%

(3:36) 7-J.Sanders 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-2-M.Haack.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 IND 4th & 10 at the 16 late-game

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.12 EP

p(convert) 32% p(FG) 94%

(:45) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer pass short middle to 85-E.Ebron to MIA 8 for 8 yards (40-N.Needham).
See the full breakdown →

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