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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 7

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(7:54) 4-A.Vinatieri 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +2.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.12 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 7, worth +0.29 EP
KICK +2.11 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -0.55 EP
PUNT +0.11 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model