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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 71

Miami Dolphins 10 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(5:54) (Punt formation) 2-M.Haack punts 41 yards to IND 30, Center-46-T.Pepper. 80-C.Rogers to MIA 49 for 21 yards (42-P.Laird).

The Three Options

GO -1.92 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.43 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 71, worth -4.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 29, worth -1.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model