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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 17 at the 21

Indianapolis Colts 3 – Miami Dolphins 10

What Actually Happened

(:43) 4-A.Vinatieri 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.27 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.88 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -0.24 EP
KICK +2.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 31, worth -0.91 EP
PUNT +0.50 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth +0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model