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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 10 at the 16

Indianapolis Colts 12 – Miami Dolphins 16

What Actually Happened

(:45) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer pass short middle to 85-E.Ebron to MIA 8 for 8 yards (40-N.Needham).

The Three Options

GO +1.26 EP
What Happened
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +4.40 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 16, worth -0.18 EP
KICK +2.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.56 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 26, worth -0.46 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.12 EP