Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 71

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Miami Dolphins 3

(5:18) (Punt formation) 8-R.Sanchez punts 35 yards to MIA 36, Center-46-L.Rhodes, downed by IND-44-Z.Franklin.

The Three Options

GO -1.19 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.95 EP
54% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 71, worth -3.91 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model