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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 35

Miami Dolphins 3 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(2:59) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right to 19-J.Grant pushed ob at IND 23 for 12 yards (39-M.Tell III).

The Three Options

GO +0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.68 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 35, worth -1.98 EP
KICK +0.33 EP
  • 69% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 45, worth -2.61 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model