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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 61

New York Giants 13 – New York Jets 14

What Actually Happened

(2:00) 8-D.Jones up the middle to NYG 39 for no gain (33-J.Adams).

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.83 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 61, worth -3.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.97 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 20, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model