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New York Giants

HC Pat Shurmur
@
NYJ Home

New York Jets

HC Adam Gase
Sunday 2019-11-10 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.0 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

NYG
47.7%
NYJ
52.3%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.333 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • NYG offense: -0.139 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • QB edge to NYJ: Sam Darnold (NYJ) -0.124 vs Daniel Jones (NYG) -0.158 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

NYG 22
–
NYJ 23
Projected margin: NYJ by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

NYG

Evan Engram TE Out Foot
Jon Halapio C Out Hamstring
Sterling Shepard WR Out Concussion
Mike Remmers T Doubtful Back

NYJ

C.J. Mosley LB Out Groin
Darryl Roberts CB Doubtful Calf
Neville Hewitt LB Doubtful Knee
Ryan Kalil C Doubtful Knee
Henry Anderson DE Questionable Shoulder
Kelvin Beachum T Questionable Ankle
Le'Veon Bell RB Questionable Knee
Christopher Herndon TE Questionable Hamstring
Jordan Jenkins LB Questionable Calf
Steve McLendon DT Questionable Hamstring
Demaryius Thomas WR Questionable Hamstring
Brian Winters G Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYG 27
–
NYJ 34

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 16 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:25 TD NYJ (7:25) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 0 – NYJ 6
  • Q1 01:44 TD NYJ (1:44) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 82-J.Crowder for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 0 – NYJ 13
  • Q2 12:33 TD NYG (12:33) 8-D.Jones pass short middle to 86-D.Slayton for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 6 – NYJ 14
  • Q2 05:33 TD NYG (5:33) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 86-D.Slayton for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 13 – NYJ 14
  • Q3 14:23 TD NYJ (14:23) 8-D.Jones sacked at NYG 25 for -9 yards (33-J.Adams). FUMBLES (33-J.Adams) [33-J.Adams], RECOVERED by NYJ-33-J.Adams at NYG 25. 33-J.Adams for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 13 – NYJ 20
  • Q3 12:01 TD NYG (12:01) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 15-G.Tate for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 19 – NYJ 21
  • Q3 05:26 TD NYG (5:26) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short middle to 15-G.Tate for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 25 – NYJ 21
  • Q3 01:46 FG NYJ (1:46) 9-S.Ficken 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. NYG 27 – NYJ 24
  • Q4 14:55 TD NYJ (14:55) (Shotgun) 26-L.Bell up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYG 27 – NYJ 30
  • Q4 07:39 FG NYJ (7:39) 9-S.Ficken 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. NYG 27 – NYJ 34

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYG 4th & 20 at the 92
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (5:52) 9-R.Dixon punts 59 yards to NYJ 33, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 10-B.Berrios pushed ob at 50 for 17 yards (55-D.Mayo).

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 48%

    (4:20) 85-T.Wesco up the middle to NYG 39 for 2 yards (41-A.Bethea).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 20 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 22%

    (9:39) 4-L.Edwards punts 40 yards to NYG 39, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-42-T.Hennessy.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 4 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 54%

    (5:33) (Shotgun) 8-D.Jones pass short right to 86-D.Slayton for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (3:43) 4-L.Edwards punts 51 yards to NYG 30, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69%

    (2:00) 8-D.Jones up the middle to NYG 39 for no gain (33-J.Adams).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 7 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 62%

    (1:29) 9-S.Ficken 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q2 NYG 4th & 8 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (:24) 9-R.Dixon punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Touchback.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (10:29) 4-L.Edwards punts 40 yards to NYG 36, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 15-G.Tate.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 64%

    (1:46) 9-S.Ficken 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q3 NYG 4th & 18 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (1:01) 9-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to NYJ 30, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 10-B.Berrios to NYJ 30 for no gain (17-C.Core).

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 2 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP
    p(convert) 57%

    (12:12) 9-R.Dixon punts 49 yards to NYJ 7, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, out of bounds.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 93%

    (7:39) 9-S.Ficken 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 15 at the 75 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (4:57) 9-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to NYJ 27, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 64 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66%

    (4:23) 4-L.Edwards punts 52 yards to NYG 12, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 15-G.Tate.

  • Q4 NYG 4th & 19 at the 97 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (2:51) 9-R.Dixon punts 59 yards to NYJ 38, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 10-B.Berrios to 50 for 12 yards (30-A.Hamilton).

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 13 at the 53 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 20%

    (:28) 4-L.Edwards punts 45 yards to NYG 8, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 15-G.Tate to NYG 16 for 8 yards (41-M.Farley).