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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 54

New York Giants 13 – New York Jets 14

What Actually Happened

(:24) 9-R.Dixon punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.61 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +1.82 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 54, worth -1.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 16, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model