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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 35

New York Jets 21 – New York Giants 27

What Actually Happened

(1:46) 9-S.Ficken 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.28 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 35, worth -1.51 EP
KICK +0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 45, worth -2.18 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model