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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Giants 4th & 18 at the 83

New York Giants 27 – New York Jets 24

What Actually Happened

(1:01) 9-R.Dixon punts 53 yards to NYJ 30, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 10-B.Berrios to NYJ 30 for no gain (17-C.Core).

The Three Options

GO -3.27 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.49 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 83, worth -4.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 41, worth -2.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model