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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 2 at the 56

New York Giants 27 – New York Jets 31

What Actually Happened

(12:12) 9-R.Dixon punts 49 yards to NYJ 7, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.47 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 56, worth -2.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 17, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.04 EP