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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 17

New York Jets 31 – New York Giants 27

What Actually Happened

(7:39) 9-S.Ficken 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.01 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 17, worth -0.83 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 27, worth -1.31 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model