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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 15 at the 75

New York Giants 27 – New York Jets 34

What Actually Happened

(4:57) 9-R.Dixon punts 48 yards to NYJ 27, Center-51-Z.DeOssie, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -2.55 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.79 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 75, worth -4.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 32, worth -1.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model