Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 20 at the 92

New York Giants 0 – New York Jets 7

(5:52) 9-R.Dixon punts 59 yards to NYJ 33, Center-51-Z.DeOssie. 10-B.Berrios pushed ob at 50 for 17 yards (55-D.Mayo).

The Three Options

GO -4.04 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +0.54 EP
75% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 92, worth -5.58 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model