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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
New York Jets
4th & 1 at the 41
New York Jets 7 – New York Giants 0
What Actually Happened
(4:20) 85-T.Wesco up the middle to NYG 39 for 2 yards (41-A.Bethea).
The Three Options
GO
+1.58 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.53 EP
- 37% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 41, worth -1.79 EP
KICK
-0.22 EP
- 48% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
- 52% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT
+0.03 EP
- New York Giants would take over around their own 12, worth +0.03 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
