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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 40

San Francisco 49ers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 9

What Actually Happened

(2:43) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete short right to 31-R.Mostert (43-H.Reddick).

The Three Options

GO +1.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +4.22 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 40, worth -1.42 EP
KICK +0.57 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.74 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.32 EP
PUNT +0.71 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model