ARI @ SF — 4th & Data

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San Francisco 49ers

9-1 HC Kyle Shanahan

Sunday 2019-11-17 · 16:05 ET Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US ☀️ Clear Spread 10.0 O/U 44.0

Win Probability

ARI

30.6%

69.4%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

SF defense: -0.317 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
ARI offense: +0.051 EPA/play over its last 8 games (10th in the league)
ARI defense: +0.151 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

ARI 19 12–26

–

SF 28 21–35

Projected margin: SF by 9 Projected total: 47

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 11

ARI

Jonathan Bullard DE Out Foot

Chase Edmonds RB Out Hamstring

Terrell Suggs LB Questionable Hamstring

Tramaine Brock CB Questionable Hamstring

Zach Kerr DE Questionable Knee

Justin Murray T Questionable Knee

SF

D.J. Jones DT Out Groin

Joe Staley T Out Finger

Azeez Al-Shaair LB Out Concussion

Matt Breida RB Doubtful Ankle

Robbie Gould K Doubtful right Quadricep

George Kittle TE Doubtful Knee

Emmanuel Sanders WR Questionable Ribs

Raheem Mostert RB Questionable Knee

Dante Pettis WR Questionable Back

Ahkello Witherspoon CB Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 11 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 26

–

SF 36

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 10:35 FG ARI (10:35) 5-Z.Gonzalez 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee. ARI 3 – SF 0
Q1 04:07 TD ARI (4:07) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 11-L.Fitzgerald for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 9 – SF 0
Q2 09:07 TD ARI (9:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 12-P.Cooper for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at SF 7. 7-yac ARI 15 – SF 0
Q2 07:55 TD SF (7:55) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 82-R.Dwelley for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 16 – SF 6
Q2 00:03 FG SF (:03) 5-C.McLaughlin 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky. ARI 16 – SF 10
Q3 11:11 TD SF (11:11) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 82-R.Dwelley for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at ARI 2. 2-yac ARI 16 – SF 16
Q3 02:58 FG ARI (2:58) 5-Z.Gonzalez 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee. ARI 19 – SF 17
Q4 12:17 TD SF (12:17) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 84-K.Bourne for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 19 – SF 23
Q4 06:35 TD ARI (6:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-K.Murray left end for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 25 – SF 23
Q4 00:37 TD SF (:37) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 30-J.Wilson for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught at ARI 20. 20-yac ARI 26 – SF 29
Q4 00:02 TD SF (:02) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short middle to 11-L.Fitzgerald to ARI 26 for 4 yards (32-D.Reed Jr.). FUMBLES (32-D.Reed Jr.), touched at ARI 26, RECOVERED by SF-32-D.Reed Jr. at ARI 5. 32-D.Reed Jr. for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Ball was batted backwards by ARI #64 J.Sweezy and then recovered by SF #32 D.Reed who scored the TD. #11 L.Fitzgerald credited with a 4-yard reception and a fumble. ARI 26 – SF 36

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 ARI 4th & 8 at the 8

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29% p(FG) 97%

(10:35) 5-Z.Gonzalez 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.
See the full breakdown →
Q1 SF 4th & 5 at the 70

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 49%

(9:19) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 51 yards to ARI 19, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 12-P.Cooper.
See the full breakdown →
Q1 SF 4th & 5 at the 40

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 45% p(FG) 57%

(2:43) (Shotgun) 10-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete short right to 31-R.Mostert (43-H.Reddick).
See the full breakdown →
Q1 ARI 4th & 11 at the 60

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30%

(1:20) 4-A.Lee punts 45 yards to SF 15, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 13-R.James Jr..
See the full breakdown →
Q2 SF 4th & 18 at the 93

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 31%

(14:14) 6-M.Wishnowsky punts 50 yards to ARI 43, Center-86-K.Nelson, fair catch by 12-P.Cooper.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 ARI 4th & 1 at the 34

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 65% p(FG) 71%

(10:55) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 81-D.Daniels to SF 30 for 4 yards (29-J.Tartt). Caught at SF 30. 0-yac
See the full breakdown →
Q2 ARI 4th & 7 at the 61

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 37%

(4:54) 4-A.Lee punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-46-A.Brewer, Touchback.
See the full breakdown →
Q2 SF 4th & 19 at the 25

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 23% p(FG) 86%

(:03) 5-C.McLaughlin 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.
See the full breakdown →
Q3 ARI 4th & 14 at the 79

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 28%

(9:45) 4-A.Lee punts 44 yards to SF 35, Center-46-A.Brewer. 13-R.James Jr. pushed ob at SF 37 for 2 yards (81-D.Daniels).
See the full breakdown →
Q3 ARI 4th & 10 at the 25

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 27% p(FG) 86%

(2:58) 5-Z.Gonzalez 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-A.Brewer, Holder-4-A.Lee.
See the full breakdown →
Q4 ARI 4th & 16 at the 81 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 27%

(2:22) 4-A.Lee punts 52 yards to SF 29, Center-46-A.Brewer. 13-R.James Jr. to SF 35 for 6 yards (28-C.Washington).
See the full breakdown →
Q4 SF 4th & 1 at the 21 late-game

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.91 EP

p(convert) 69% p(FG) 90%

(:11) (Run formation) 26-T.Coleman right guard to ARI 22 for -1 yards (58-J.Hicks, 43-H.Reddick).
See the full breakdown →

Arizona Cardinals