Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 11 at the 60

Arizona Cardinals 9 – San Francisco 49ers 0

(1:20) 4-A.Lee punts 45 yards to SF 15, Center-46-A.Brewer, fair catch by 13-R.James Jr..

The Three Options

GO -2.23 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.24 EP
70% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 60, worth -4.12 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model