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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 34

Arizona Cardinals 9 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:55) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 81-D.Daniels to SF 30 for 4 yards (29-J.Tartt). Caught at SF 30. 0-yac

The Three Options

GO +1.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.69 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 34, worth -2.17 EP
KICK +0.17 EP
  • 71% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.37 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.67 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model