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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 19 at the 25

San Francisco 49ers 7 – Arizona Cardinals 16

What Actually Happened

(:03) 5-C.McLaughlin 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Nelson, Holder-6-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +0.70 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +3.03 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.99 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 35, worth -0.06 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model